Statistical Methods for Research Workers
I've been reading one of R. A. Fisher's books: "Statistical Methods for Research Workers":http://www.amazon.com/Statistical-Methods-Experimental-Scientific-Inference/dp/0198522290/ref=pdbbssr_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1235111308&sr=8-1. The book was an early work, originally a type of recipe book for a knowledge worker to setup experiments. It was written before Pearson and Neyman developed the idea of the null hypothesis.
What's more fascinating is the time Fisher is willing to take to explain things. I have 4 or 5 books on my shelf that explain statistics, geared for a practitioner rather than a theorist. I don't have any interest in expanding statistical theory, but there is a lot that lies between where I am and where I am going in using the stuff. These books could almost be carbon copies of each other. They read like manuals, explaining the terms and concepts, walking the self-same path of discovery. There is no joy of discovery in those books like there is in Fisher's book. For instance, Fisher takes the time to explain what it looks like to see parts of the normal distribution without appealing to abstractions.
They call him the Father of Modern Statistics for a reason, you know. It's because he was there, explaining and discovering at a time when organizing a test was whatever you happened to think of at the time. You are the scientist, so your process is assumed to be scientific.
Reading Fisher reminds me of other great minds, and the simplicity they give to their subjects:
- Polya describes the patterns of general problem solving in "How To Solve It":http://www.amazon.com/How-Solve-Mathematical-Princeton-Science/dp/069111966X/ref=sr11?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1235111748&sr=1-1 after a career of teaching mathematics at Stanford and involving himself in many mathematical breakthroughs
- Kline describes Calculus like it's the backyard playground in "Calculus":http://www.amazon.com/Calculus-Intuitive-Physical-Approach-Second/dp/0486404536/ref=sr11?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1235111820&sr=1-1. No wonder he was the dean in mathematics at New York University
The world needs more writers like Kline, Polya, and Fisher, when they're at the peak of their experiences. I'm glad I have this resource to keep my mind active and curious in topics that would otherwise bury me quickly.
Cognitive Maps and Other Learning Hacks 2
I am reading Andy Hunt's excellent book, Pragmatic Thinking & Learning. I've been waiting for it to come out, and I'm glad I have it. I'll review it formally when I've finished it. Meantime, I'd like to submit some related material that has been critical for me to be able to write Tegu, to this point. The main ideas are:
- Cognitive Maps
- Mind Maps
- Collaborative Thinking
- Systems Thinking
- Systems Dynamics and Archetypes
- Non-monotonic Thinking or Focusing on the Essential
Cognitive Maps
A cognitive map is, on the surface, a note taking tactic. With practice, you'll learn that it's much more. The essential elements to capture from every worthwhile article or chapter are:
- Citation
- Terms and Definitions
- Statement of the Author's Message
- Discussion of Concepts
- Questions about the Concepts
- Association of the Material to Other Knowledge
- Application of Material
- Assessment of the Author's Presentation
It's a thorough outline. I use both templates in my word processing software and a simple Rails application to capture that information. When I have material that is dense, far-removed to things I'm comfortable with, or critical to understand, I don't hesitate to pull out the big guns. I actually sleep better at night knowing that I have big guns for the big problems.
Cognitive maps assist me with much more than just organize data, however. They ask me to practice moving between expansive and analytical thinking. I have to massage the material in many ways using different parts of my brain, finally signaling to myself and others the relative position of this new knowledge in the overall hierarchy of beliefs that I hold in my mind. That's a very powerful effect that I just can't leave to chance alone to produce for me. It is not enough to understand another person's thoughts, I have to be responsible with that newfound knowledge.
Mind Maps
This is a tool that I use at least once every day. If you don't have Free Mind, go get it. Now. Thanks. I've used Free Mind for presentations, making arguments, taking notes, organizing classes, exploring possibilities, keeping todo lists, storing documents, making a browsing history, and defining ontologies. This is a very versatile tool.
Use this tool for expansive thinking. What if this doesn't work? What if I try that? How do these relate? Can these ideas possibly exist in the same universe? It turns out that the fast nature of taking these kinds of notes is very useful. The visual and tactile experience I have with my ideas gives it deeper meaning and usefulness. This kind of thinking uses the creative resources found on the right hemisphere of my brain, as well as relieves a lot of the workload in the frontal lobes (determining priority and relevance).
Other parts of the brain can also be engaged with this tool. When decomposing a problem, I am using analytical tools, the left hemisphere. I am creating a linear view on the problem set. Mind maps are also very useful for this kind of thing.
Collaborative Thinking
Most people know what I'm talking about if I mention brain storming. You sit in front of a white board and call out ideas, which are written down and evaluated later. This is a watered-down version of what I'm talking about. There are other approaches that are very useful. Just consider, that the higher the intelligence quotient of the people in any given room seems to be negatively correlated with the decisions they are capable of making together. It takes a little organization to get ideas onto the table and evaluate them properly. Here are some approaches worth looking into for your own use:
The Delphi Method, an approach of bringing expertise into a situation and removing political hierarchies as filters against the ideas
Brain Writing: a process of taking general ideas (such as those generated from brain storming) and developing them serially in the group-each person develops an idea on a piece of paper for a few paragraphs, puts it down, and continues on another's thoughts.
ICM: a process of prioritizing the issues at hand.
There are a few other collaborative thinking issue that I mention below.
Systems Thinking
This is both an art and an empirical deliverable. The trick is to see an element in its environment, to figure out the implications of how something effects what's important. There are many really useful methodologies that have been developed to deliver this from the likes of Thomas Edison and the Rand Corporation. I will likely write a few articles just on this, because it has everything to do with how Tegu should be used.
Here is a pragmatic approach to get started with this.
- Define the Problem
- Explore the Possibilities
- Setup the Environment
- Develop the System
- Maintain the System
Again, the important thing here is what's happening cognitively. We're approaching a problem with different cognitive tools that open us to fresh and thorough thinking.
Systems Dynamics and Archetypes
System dynamics are like a bathtub: the water comes in through a faucet, sits in the tub, and drains. This can be applied to just about everything. What should happen when looking at the dynamics of a system is the recognition of archetypes. Peter Senge outlines many of these archetypes in his classic business book, The Fifth Discipline. What changes in my thinking is when I see a Winner Take All or Tragedy of the Commons archetype being played out, I change my approach to the process all together.
One of the spinoffs from Tegu is a gem/Tegu plugin just for this. There will be articles on how to use this both as a cognitive tool and a programming tool.
Non-monotonic Thinking or Focusing on the Essential
Another spinoff gem/plugin is a truth maintenance system called non-monotonic reasoning. This is the way that we typically think. In fact, that last sentence is a very good example of non-monotonic reasoning. We are able to generalize and infer meaning from some basic rules without needing to fact-check every rule in our minds:
- Birds typically fly
- Roasted birds typically fly
- Sunday dinner is typically roasted bird
- Sunday dinner will not likely fly away
The cognitive tool here is making expectations explicit. Writing them down when I'm stuck helps me see where I've extended my thinking in fallible ways. Since this is also a piece of software on my hard drive, there will also be some pragmatic discussion about using this in our systems.
So there you have it: tools to clean your thinking and solve problems faster. Explicitly use a few of these ideas, and problems seem to present their own answers more quickly. I've had to use concrete approaches to each of these ideas in order to bring Tegu along as far as it's come.